Schedule: FAA flight plans.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1508 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 12:02 AM PT (20 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Monday, October 12 Today

UA 1508 · SFO → YUL

departs 11:30 PM PT · arrives 7:44 AM EDT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YUL?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YUL

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ 11pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YUL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1508 · SFO → YUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to YUL?