Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1508 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

UA 1508 · SFO → YUL

departs 11:29 PM PT · arrives 7:53 AM EDT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YUL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at YUL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YUL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1508 · SFO → YUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to YUL?