UA 2190 · DCA → IAH

took off 11:13 AM ET · expected to land 12:48 PM CT (scheduled 10:58 AM ET → 1:19 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at DCA that day

↑ 10am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.20 in

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling8,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2190 · DCA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?