UA 2256 · IAH → MTY

departs 10:23 AM CT · arrives 11:06 AM CST

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MTY more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MTY?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from IAH are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into MTY at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling8,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

MTY (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2256 · IAH → MTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MTY?