UA 2256 · IAH → MTY

departs 10:06 AM CT · arrives 10:40 AM CST

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at MTY more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MTY?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ 10am departures from IAH are often late

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into MTY at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.20 in

MTY (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2256 · IAH → MTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MTY?