Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2457 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Tomorrow

UA 2457 · RTB → IAH

departs 12:26 PM CST · arrives 4:32 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±4 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at RTB

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 12pm departures from RTB are usually not late

Weather at each end

RTB (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2457 · RTB → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?