UA 2811 · ORD → LAS

took off 9:58 AM CT · expected to land 11:23 AM PT (scheduled 9:14 AM CT → 11:10 AM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

66% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

LIVE

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
52%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2811 · ORD → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?