UA 515 · EWR → SAT

took off 12:28 PM ET · expected to land 2:38 PM CT (scheduled 12:20 PM ET → 3:21 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ SAT is prone to delays

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

SAT (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 515 · EWR → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?