Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 515 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

UA 515 · EWR → SAT

departs 11:57 AM ET · arrives 3:07 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ SAT is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from EWR are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 515 · EWR → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?