VS 5 · LHR → MIA

took off 11:25 AM BST · expected to land 3:24 PM ET (scheduled 10:55 AM BST → 3:55 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LHR

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LHR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

VS 5 · LHR → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?