WN 1524 · DCA → TPA

departs 6:49 AM ET · arrives 9:24 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.24 in

TPA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1524 · DCA → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?