WN 1871 · ABQ → LAS

departs 10:55 AM MT · arrives 11:35 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±11 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Gusts to 32 kt forecast at ABQ that day

↓ 10am departures from ABQ are usually not late

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1871 · ABQ → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?