WN 3033 · MIA → BNA

took off 12:37 PM ET · expected to land 1:24 PM CT (scheduled 11:43 AM ET → 12:58 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

96% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BNA?

LIVE

On time or early
4%
15–30 min late
35%
30 min–1 hour late
61%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from MIA are often late

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

BNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3033 · MIA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?