WN 3406 · PHX → LAS

departs 3:01 PM MT · arrives 4:15 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
37%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3406 · PHX → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?