Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3406
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 3406 · PHX → LAS
departs 2:59 PM MT · arrives 4:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14 8%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±16 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.