WN 3761 · SEA → PHX

left the gate 11:19 AM PT · taxiing (scheduled 11:10 AM PT → 2:04 PM MT)

Your aircraft is N8850Q (B38M), coming in as WN 3422 from SAN: landed 10:06 AM PT.

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±8 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3761 · SEA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?