Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3761
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 3761 · SEA → PHX
departs 11:33 AM PT · arrives 2:23 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 33%
Thu 10/15 37%
Fri 10/16 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
11am departures from SEA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.