Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4594
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
WN 4594 · BWI → CLT
departs 7:55 PM ET · arrives 9:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 65%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 23%
Wed 10/14 22%
Thu 10/15 31%
Fri 10/16 32%
Sat 10/17 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±5 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.21 in
CLT (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.