WN 4677 · DEN → RSW

took off 1:09 PM MT · expected to land 6:08 PM ET (scheduled 12:06 PM MT → 5:51 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

75% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RSW?

LIVE

On time or early
25%
15–30 min late
55%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Arrivals into RSW at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at RSW that day

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4677 · DEN → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?