Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4677
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 4677 · DEN → RSW
departs 12:06 PM MT · arrives 5:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 28%
Sun 10/18 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
This flight has been late 16% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.39 in
RSW (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.