WN 518 · CVG → DEN

took off 2:57 PM ET · expected to land 3:22 PM MT (scheduled 2:25 PM ET → 3:22 PM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.06 mi forecast at CVG that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from CVG are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ CVG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.06 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 518 · CVG → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?