Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LATAM ECUADOR · FLIGHT XL 711
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
XL 711 · MIA → LIM
departs 1:57 AM ET · arrives 6:36 AM -05
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LIM more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.1d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LIM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at LIM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LIM?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↑
XL's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LIM
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
LIM (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.