Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR PREMIA · FLIGHT YP 131 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Tomorrow

YP 131 · ICN → EWR

departs 10:07 PM KST · arrives 9:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±7 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ICN

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ICN (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.33333 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YP 131 · ICN → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?