YX 3556 · RDU → IAD

took off 4:58 PM ET · landed 5:45 PM ET (scheduled 3:03 PM ET → 4:25 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to IAD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from RDU are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.97 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3556 · RDU → IAD

Odds over time

How late did it get to IAD?