Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3556
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 3556 · RDU → IAD
departs 3:04 PM ET · arrives 4:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from RDU are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.