YX 4407 · CAE → DCA

took off 6:20 AM ET · landed 7:25 AM ET (scheduled 6:02 AM ET → 7:45 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DCA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from CAE are usually not late

Weather at each end

CAE (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4407 · CAE → DCA

Odds over time

How late did it get to DCA?