YX 4494 · DCA → BOS

departs 12:56 PM ET · arrives 2:39 PM ET

Your aircraft is N412YX (E75S), coming in as YX 4790 from ILM: landed 11:43 AM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

98% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BOS that day

↑ 12pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.20 in

BOS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4494 · DCA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?