YX 4627 · JFK → YQB

took off 12:14 PM ET · expected to land 1:20 PM EDT (scheduled 12:18 PM ET → 2:11 PM EDT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at YQB more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to YQB?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 12pm departures from JFK are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.10 in

YQB (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4627 · JFK → YQB

Odds over time

How late will it get to YQB?