Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4627
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 4627 · JFK → YQB
departs 11:58 AM ET · arrives 1:41 PM EDT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Mon 10/12 23%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at YQB more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YQB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at YQB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YQB?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at YQB that day
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↑
11am departures from JFK are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YQB usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
YQB (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.95 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.