YX 4647 · BUF → DCA

took off 12:19 PM ET · expected to land 1:21 PM ET (scheduled 12:01 PM ET → 1:38 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at DCA that day

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.03 in

DCA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4647 · BUF → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?