YX 4698 · BOS → ROC

took off 10:31 AM ET · expected to land 11:28 AM ET (scheduled 9:17 AM ET → 10:58 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

98% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ROC?

LIVE

On time or early
2%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
73%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BOS that day

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.31 in

ROC (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4698 · BOS → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?