Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4698
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 4698 · BOS → ROC
departs 9:21 AM ET · arrives 11:02 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Mon 10/12 16%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15 10%
Fri 10/16 11%
Sat 10/17 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at ROC that day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.03 in
ROC (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.