YX 4721 · BOS → JFK

took off 7:05 PM ET · landed 7:57 PM ET (scheduled 5:29 PM ET → 6:55 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to JFK?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BOS that day

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.41 in

JFK (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4721 · BOS → JFK

Odds over time

How late did it get to JFK?