Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4721
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4721 · BOS → JFK
departs 5:32 PM ET · arrives 6:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Tue 10/13 46%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 31%
Fri 10/16 43%
Sat 10/17 33%
Sun 10/18 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±5 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.08 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.