Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4756
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
YX 4756 · YYZ → DCA
departs 6:14 AM EDT · arrives 7:50 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at DCA that day
↑
6am departures from YYZ are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.