Schedule: FAA flight plans.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4782 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 8:36 AM ET (15 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Monday, October 12 Tomorrow

YX 4782 · BOS → BUF

departs 8:11 AM ET · arrives 10:03 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BOS that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at BUF that day

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.66 in

BUF (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4782 · BOS → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?