Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4782
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 4782 · BOS → BUF
departs 8:16 AM ET · arrives 10:07 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Mon 10/12 12%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 10%
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at BUF that day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.