YX 4800 · ATL → DCA

took off 5:18 PM ET · expected to land 6:45 PM ET (scheduled 5:12 PM ET → 7:19 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4800 · ATL → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?