Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5693
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
YX 5693 · BOS → DCA
departs 9:15 AM ET · arrives 11:07 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BOS that day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DCA that day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.66 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.37 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.