YX 5734 · LEX → DCA

departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:35 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ LEX is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from LEX are usually not late

Weather at each end

LEX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,367 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5734 · LEX → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?