Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5777
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
YX 5777 · DCA → BNA
departs 3:36 PM ET · arrives 4:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.31 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.