Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5835
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
YX 5835 · BNA → DCA
departs 5:57 AM CT · arrives 8:53 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DCA that day
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from BNA are usually not late
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.