Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4714 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

9E 4714 · MSP → MDW

departs 3:31 PM CT · arrives 5:12 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late

↑ MSP is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling8,067 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4714 · MSP → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?