9E 4964 · MSP → BTV

departs 7:36 AM CT · arrives 11:05 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BTV?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at BTV that day

↑ Other factors

↓ BTV usually runs smoothly

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BTV (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4964 · MSP → BTV

Odds over time

How late will it get to BTV?