Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5364 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

9E 5364 · ROC → LGA

departs 12:23 PM ET · arrives 1:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

LGA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5364 · ROC → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?