Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5534 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

9E 5534 · DTW → MEM

departs 4:15 PM ET · arrives 5:16 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MEM at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5534 · DTW → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?