Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 397
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
9X 397 · IAD → BFD
departs 11:35 AM ET · arrives 1:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 11%
Sat 10/17 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at BFD more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BFD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BFD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BFD?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
9X's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at BFD that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into BFD at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
BFD (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.