Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 397
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
9X 397 · IAD → BFD
departs 11:04 AM ET · arrives 12:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14
Sat 10/17 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at BFD more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BFD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at BFD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BFD?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at BFD that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into BFD at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BFD (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.