Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1189 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 1189 · DCA → ORD

departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 6:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1189 · DCA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?