Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1200 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AA 1200 · DCA → ORD

departs 10:22 AM ET · arrives 11:31 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,733 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1200 · DCA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?